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Texas Ag Economy Tied to Mexico Trade
By Chris Clayton
Tuesday, February 24, 2026 3:51PM CST

SAN ANTONIO, Texas (DTN) -- With the mandatory six-year review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement approaching and tariff tensions escalating, farm groups gathered Tuesday at the site where NAFTA was signed to press for preserving duty-free trade across North America.

Farmers for Free Trade has been highlighting the importance of trade deals since the first Trump administration but has ramped up its focus in the past year on protecting the USMCA as well.

The mandatory six-year review of USMCA has been a constant focus of attention for farm commodity groups. That has become even more heightened as President Donald Trump digs in on his tariff policies following last week's Supreme Court ruling against his use of an emergency power to impose tariffs. Roughly 85% of trade between the U.S., Mexico and Canada is tariff-free because of the trade deal.

Farmers for Free Trade held Tuesday's event in the same courtyard where former President George H.W. Bush signed NAFTA with leaders of Canada and Mexico in October 1992. Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade, noted the U.S. exported about $9 billion in agricultural goods to the two countries in 1992. U.S. agricultural exports were $58.8 billion in 2025 to Canada ($28.2 billion) and Mexico ($30.6 billion).

San Antonio Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones, who previously worked at the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, also spoke at the Farmers for Free Trade event, highlighting how different parts for vehicles, such as Toyota pickups, are built on both sides of the border.

The USMCA review will be a priority for Jones in an upcoming trip to Washington, D.C., where she said she'll focus on telling stories about the impact of USMCA on local communities. But she also said, "That review must also be cognizant of the sectors that are evolving in real time." She pointed to areas such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and manufacturing as some examples of areas seeing rapid changes.

A group that included a Texas farmer, a grain buyer, a representative of the crop inputs industry and a Texas-based manufacturing group each spoke about the importance of trade ties to Mexico for the state's economy.

Jones also tied the trade deal to immigration policies. She noted San Antonio has roughly 100,000 people who are undocumented, and more than half of them have likely been in the country for two decades. They work a lot in the construction and service industries, Jones said.

"At the end of the day, whatever we are striving for, we need a strong labor force to help us do that," she said. "And so, right now, what is our community dealing with? We're dealing not only with the impacts of tariffs and inflation, but we're also dealing with the effects of a short-sighted immigration policy that is driving up labor costs, which then are passed on to consumers."

Those undocumented people are also consumers, Jones added.

"So, it's a cycle that feeds upon itself, which is why I think we need to think about them in the same context. A good trade deal, absent an ability to actually execute it, doesn't do anyone any good," Jones said. She added, "This is a key part of our consumer base as well. So, we can never forget that. So, when I think of short-sighted policy -- immigration policies -- I think of fewer workers doing the work. I also think of fewer people buying our stuff, which means a weaker San Antonio economically. On top of that, of course, is the needless fear that is affecting too much of our community as a result of these policies."

Speaking on a panel with others in the industry, Charles Ring, a corn, sorghum and cotton grower near Corpus Christi, Texas, said the economy of southern Texas is dependent on Mexican trade. Ring said there have been times when currency changes between the two countries will matter more than actual changes in prices.

"I've been in the office at times when I couldn't sell corn at the price I want, and the Mexican, the Mexican peso was low while the American dollar was high," Ring said. "Within a week's time, they both reversed themselves, and the peso went up in value; the U.S. dollar went down. I actually sold corn for more money the following week with the lower (CME) board (price) than I did, because basis changed. We're dependent on the peso value as well as the dollar, in order to sell our commodities. In fact, that's generally what's good on one end, meaning that the high dollar may be good for some things, but for our exports, a high dollar is a hindrance."

Asked more broadly about the impact of tariffs in general, when China stopped buying sorghum last April, it created a ripple effect on corn prices in Texas as well, said Chris O'Connor, general manager of Willamar Cotton and Grain in the southeast corner of Texas.

"The Chinese want to buy the U.S. product," O'Connor said, "and that has been the biggest hit for us. It has impacted the farmer on prices. It's impacted the elevator. It's impacted the cotton gin also. And so, if that sorghum was out of the market and going into China, then Mexico would have a greater demand for corn. Corn producers would have a higher price."

Venus Welch-White, director of federal government relations for CropLife America, also noted that the U.S. exports $2 billion in pesticide products to Canada and roughly $840 million to Mexico. Broadly, tariff policies have cost the crop-input industry about $2 billion, she said.

Highlighting the importance of USMCA to commodity groups, a separate event focusing on the trade deal will be held at Commodity Classic on Thursday, led by the National Corn Growers Association.

The prediction market Kalshi has a trading question: "Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?" Only 22% of prediction bets expect that to happen by July 2026. However, the odds increase to 40% "before 2027."

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN


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