REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- The Northern Plains of the United States has seen a mix of dry conditions throughout the year, causing drought conditions and extended recovery in wildfire-stricken areas.

"We had good moisture early in the year and then it got hot and dry throughout the summer," said Joliet, Montana, rancher Howdy Hildebrand. "We can use the fall snow moisture, but didn't get any of that this year." He said many cattle producers in his area of south-central Montana are still grazing cows because of the mild fall but are expected to start feeding hay soon.

The 2024 hay crop in southern Montana was about average for the area, unlike the above-average crop two years ago when moisture was prevalent. Hildebrand said some local producers are even purchasing cows because of the bonus money they have after selling calves for record high prices and an abundant hay crop.

"The stored hay is not worth a lot, so people are finding ways to just feed it this year, even if that means buying cows," he added.

WILDFIRE RECOVERY TAKING TIME

Some areas of Montana and the Dakotas experienced wildfires because of drought conditions in the fall of this year. North Dakota State University Extension rangeland management specialist Kevin Sedivec said recovering from the fires in western North Dakota and eastern Montana will have a negative impact on forage production for the coming year. Fire affects different types of plants differently. "Warm season grasses usually respond by producing greater biomass after a fire. Cool season grasses lose vigor after a burn, creating less biomass. Flowering plants are tricky, with some increasing biomass and some reducing," he stated in an NDSU Extension news release.

The wildfires are destructive in the aftermath, but Sedivec said native grasses and forbs don't experience as much long-term negative impacts from the fire. However, one negative caused by wildfire is the removal of all above-ground plant material, leaving soils exposed to erosion until new plants grow. Research shows the regrowth isn't back to normal until year two or three after a wildfire.

"Wildfire will negatively impact forage production in 2025," concluded Sedivec. "However, with proper grazing management these sites will quickly recover forage production. Additionally, fires will likely have positive benefits to the plant community that will improve diversity and the long-term resilience of rangelands to future droughts and wildfires."

SOIL MOISTURE LOW IN THE REGION

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said dry weather is widespread throughout the Northern Plains region. Parts of eastern North Dakota are without drought and central Montana is not as bad as farther east. But otherwise, the soil moisture in the region was very low as the ground froze up in late November.

"While the current situation is not a good one for most folks in the region, there is some potential for improvement over the winter and early spring," Baranick said. "The weather situation is likely to be chaotic and will not hit everyone equally, but there does seem to be potential for plenty of storm systems to move through the region. That means more potential for events, but not necessarily more precipitation."

Baranick said some bigger systems are certainly possible; the increased number of systems is likely because of clippers, which are notoriously dry for this region. Therefore, while the potential is for higher precipitation, the expectation is that it should be close to normal. Snowfall and snowpack will also be important, though that is always difficult to ascertain.

Hildebrand said on their ranch located in the foothills of the Beartooth Mountains, they rely on snowmelt for irrigation to get through the coming year. Snow in March and April will keep the range grass growing for summer grazing.

Baranick said there is a possibility to see an extension of winter into much of the spring. Model and historical forecasts point toward colder air lingering longer in April and potentially some late bursts of cold in May as well. "Should that occur, we could see a slow start to springtime greening. However, if we think the snowfall forecast carries low confidence, the springtime forecast is even less confident because of a lack of a strong climate driver going into spring," he added.

With the colder winter and the potential for it to extend deeper into the spring than normal, additional feed may be required for livestock this season. Hildebrand said, thankfully, most have hay in storage, unlike three years ago when it had to be hauled in from as far away as Nebraska to provide feed for the cattle.

"In our area we are looking at maintaining the cow herd right now. With a couple good years weather-wise, we could see some rebuilding start," Hildebrand concluded.

Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com

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