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Russian Election Set to Secure Kremlin 09/17 06:19
(AP) -- It's a challenging time for Russia to hold a parliamentary election,
even one whose outcome is all but assured.
The economic and political climate has been seriously affected by 4 years
of full-fledged war with Ukraine. Swarms of enemy drones have inflicted massive
damage on Russian oil refineries and logistical facilities. The public, which
no longer sees the fighting as something distant, is increasingly nervous.
United Russia, the main Kremlin party, is poised to keep its overwhelming
grip on the State Duma alongside a few other parties that vote in sync with
President Vladimir Putin's wishes. Still, authorities have tightened control
over the first wartime balloting for the lower chamber of parliament since the
2022 invasion.
The Kremlin stifled even the slightest signs of dissent before three days of
voting that begin Friday. The only party that dared to criticize the war was
unceremoniously removed from the ballot, and a few anti-war politicians have
been imprisoned or forced to flee abroad.
With the result predetermined and Putin's political dominance under no
immediate threat, analysts say the Kremlin sees the election as a key effort to
mobilize public support for the war and legitimize its action.
"Your choice and resolve will once again demonstrate that millions of people
stand behind our fighters, that we are a united people, bound by shared values,
historical memory, and love for the Motherland," Putin said in an address
before the vote.
Economic damage mounts from summer attacks
A summer marked by Ukraine's long-range drone strikes brought the war home
for millions of Russians for the first time.
The attacks exacerbated problems for the Russian economy, which has plunged
into stagnation as the initial boost from massive military spending has waned.
The government raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the
growing budget deficit under control.
Strikes on Russian oil refineries sparked a severe fuel crisis that peaked
in June, eased for a few weeks and then returned in August.
Adding to the pain was a series of attacks on warehouses belonging to online
retailers Wildberries and Ozon. Hundreds of thousands of individual sellers
lost their merchandise, sending a shock wave through the economy.
All this dampened the public mood. Polls recorded a dip in Putin's approval
ratings, even though they remained high, with the independent Levada Center
showing it at 76% in August, down from 87% in September 2025.
Even some senior members of Russia's elite openly expressed discontent.
Andrei Klepach, chief economist of the state VEB.RF bank, warned of possible
internal turmoil in Russia.
"We won't win the competition in this war of attrition," he said at a
seminar. "Our costs are mounting. I'm almost sure that we will come to face a
social crisis."
Klepach was dismissed the day after his comments were published.
Putin doesn't budge on his war goals
Putin acknowledged the strikes on oil refineries and logistical hubs
inflicted significant damage but insisted the economy can weather it. By
striking such infrastructure, he said Ukraine opened a "Pandora's box,"
inviting massive retaliation.
Russia intensified attacks on Kyiv and other cities with missiles and new
jet-powered drones, exploiting Ukraine's shortage of defensive interceptors.
Moscow also dramatically stepped up its barrage on Odesa and other Black Sea
ports, disrupting Ukrainian exports of grain and other agricultural products, a
key source of revenue.
As the problems caused by Ukraine's attacks spread across Russia, fears
mounted that the Kremlin was mulling a massive mobilization.
A partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists in 2022 prompted hundreds of
thousands of Russians to flee the country, undermining domestic stability.
Since then, the Kremlin has relied on volunteers to fight, offering
comparatively high wages and other benefits. Military experts warned, however,
that the flow of volunteers has ebbed while massive losses have continued.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly claims the Kremlin is
considering a postelection mobilization, which Putin dismisses as "nonsense."
At a Sept. 5 Kremlin meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared
Kushner and a subsequent call with President Donald Trump, Putin said Russia
holds the upper hand on the battlefield, signaling he will keep his maximalist
demands for striking a peace deal.
Anti-war forces silenced
In July, the Central Election Commission cleared 11 parties for the
parliamentary ballot, including Yabloko, the only registered political party to
openly criticize the war.
Weeks later, however, the country's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the
ballot. It was acting on an appeal from the nationalist Motherland party that
called liberal Yabloko's anti-war stance akin to seeking the violation of
Russia's territorial integrity.
Kremlin-watchers described the move as an apparent sign of infighting
between elements of the government who wanted a semblance of competition to
increase voter turnout, and those who feared Yabloko's presence could bring
open criticism of the war and political instability.
"The risks that the campaign would turn into a struggle for and against
peace -- that is, a dispute about the war -- were quite high, and this clearly
was not part of the plan," said Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia
Eurasia Center.
Maxim Kruglov, a deputy chairman of Yabloko and former member of Moscow's
city council, was convicted in June of spreading false information about the
Russian army and sentenced to seven years in prison.
Last month, a court in the Pskov region convicted Yabloko member Lev
Shlosberg of speaking out against the war and sentenced him to over 11 years in
prison.
Following Yabloko's removal from the ballot, authorities have methodically
barred its individual members from running in most of its single-constituency
races for the Duma and regional legislatures.
Liberal politician and war critic Boris Nadezhdin, who tried to challenge
Putin in the 2024 presidential election, left Russia last month, fearing
imprisonment after he was designated as a "foreign agent," barred from seeking
office, and fined for displaying "extremist symbols."
The main Kremlin party is poised to retain dominance
United Russia, which controls over two-thirds of parliament's 450 seats, is
set to maintain its dominance of the lower house despite public fatigue with
the war and the worsening economy. Some Russian reports indicate the Kremlin
has slightly lowered its target for United Russia but expects it to retain full
control in parliament.
"United Russia may be allowed to slip a little ... to bring its actual sort
of declared results more in line with probably its real results," said analyst
Mark Galeotti, who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, adding that the
Kremlin will ensure it "is still absolutely dominant within the Duma."
One purpose of the elections is showing they are "legitimating rituals to
give the impression that mass consensus is behind the Kremlin," he said.
Other members of the "systemic opposition" -- the Communist Party, the
Liberal-Democratic Party and A Just Russia Party, which all follow Putin's
course and strongly support the war -- are expected to retain their presence in
the Duma.
While Ukraine's attacks have fueled broad anxiety, they also could bring a
demand for a tougher response against Kyiv, "as long as they don't have to be
involved in it," Galeotti said in a podcast.
Chris Weafer, CEO of the Macro-Advisory Ltd., said that while Ukraine's
attacks have affected public morale, there's no immediate threat to the
Kremlin's political domination.
"There has been a 'rally around the flag' anyway since the start of conflict
and the opinion polls consistently show the very high level of support," he
said.
While the results are predetermined, "the public narrative and particularly
the turnout" is what's important to the Kremlin to claim broad public support
for its action, Weafer added.
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